Long hiatus since last post

I quit posting once it became very, very obvious that Barack Obama was going to win...and win he did. Surprisingly my blog has NOT had Obamaniacs commenting post-election, unlike on some other websites. I made some now crazy projections, but all were made with the data available. Hard to believe that McCain-Palin would have been the winning ticket at certain moments of 2008...and albeit by thinner margins than what President Obama managed to do last year.

I will start doing some projections etc for VA/NJ races in the Fall, currently focused again on my installation work and painting.

ELECTION PROJECTION 9/27: McCAIN 252 OBAMA 286

This is the final pre-debate polling projection, as all data represents a state-by-state result from polling taken literally on the eve of the first presidential debate held last night. Obama kept climbing through this past week, retaking New Hampshire and flipping Virginia to match Bush's 2004 electoral vote tally of 286. He also strengthened in Michigan and Oregon, further (for now) hurting McCains chances of an upset in those states.

We will see Rasmussens new 5-state polling Monday, involving post-debate interviews in crucial battleground states. We shall see if the debate had any impact for either candidate.

Obama is now within striking distance of over 350 electoral votes- he has surged in Florida and Missouri and narrowed the gaps in Ohio, North Carolina, and Nevada. A popular vote win of a percentage point more or two could lead to a blowout on the map.

Next Update- September 29 2008

ELECTION PROJECTION 9/24: MCCAIN,OBAMA STILL TIED @ 269

Obama had a surge in the national polls last week, and the state polls now follow. He has expanded his leads in the swing states of Colorado and Wisconsin, and gauged a bit into McCain's leads in Florida, Nevada and Ohio. Obama-leading state polls have outnumbered McCain-leading polls nearly 2 to 1 in the last forty-eight hours...strongly suggesting Obama has fully regained the momentum back from McCain after the Republicans' brief lead following the Republican National Convention at the beginning of the month.

STATE OF THE STATES (for both candidates, weakest to strongest):

MCCAIN

NH +0.5, NV +1.5, VA +2.5, FL +3, OH +3, IN +4, NC +4.5, WV +4.5, MO +4.75, MT +11, AZ +11, AR +12, MS +14, TN +15, TX +15, GA +15, LA +15, SC +15.5, SD +16.5, KY +19, AK +20, KS +20, TN +23, NE +24, AL +25, OK +30, WY +30, UT +37.5, ID +40.

OBAMA

PA +2.75, MN +3, MI +3.5, WI +4, CO +5, NJ +6, NM +8, OR +8, ME +8, NY +10.5, IA +11, DE +11.25, CT +13, CA +15, IL +15, MA +16, RI +17.5, MD +18, VT +19, HI +36, DC +60.

NEXT UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 26 2008

ELECTION PROJECTION 9/22: McCAIN 269 OBAMA 269

Despite a strong week of polling for Obama, McCain has managed to flip his first Kerry04 state in the GE- New Hampshire, which, with the addition of a University of New Hampshire poll, swings ever so slightly into the Republican's camp. This of course does not take away from Obamas strong week in the national polls, and his gains in Virginia. Obama has polled well in Wisconsin, Minnesota, North and South Carolina, New Mexico, and California a bit stronger. Of course how much of this is residue from a rough economic week and how much is the subsiding of the McCain convention bounce has yet to be seen.

Mason Dixon will be releasing daily polls, and Rasmussen will continue to release polls morning, noon, and evening daily for much of the remainder of the cycle. SurveyUSA will also be joining in the daily poll barrage, promising over a dozen new state poll results this week.
STATE OF THE STATES PER CANDIDATE (weakest to strongest):
MCCAIN:
NH +0.5, VA +2, NV +2, OH +3, FL +3.75, IN +4, NC +4.5, MO +4.75, WV +7.5, MT +10, AZ +11, ND +12, AR +13, MS +14, SC +14, LA +15, GA +15, TX +15, SD +16.5, KY +18.5, AK +20, TN +23, NE +24, AL +25, KS +27, OK +30, WY +30, UT +37.5, ID +40.
OBAMA:
WI +2.5, PA +2.5, CO +2.5, MN +3.5, MI +3.75, WA +5, NJ +6, OR +6.5, NM +8, IA +8, ME +8, NY +10.5, DE +11.25, CT +13, MA +13.5, MD +14, IL +15, CA +15, RI +21.5, VT +21.5, HI +31, DC +60.

NEXT UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 24 2008

ELECTION PROJECTION 9/19: MCCAIN 265 OBAMA 273

Colorado flips back to Obama, giving him the lead once again (and following the national polls giving him a boost since the Wall Street meltdown a few days ago).
Obama has also strengthened in Washington,New Mexico, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan. McCain has strenghtened in Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Virginia.

Current momentum is towards Obama, but that could subside with the improving market news and a good news cycle for McCain.

Next Update- September 22 2008

"Absolute" Projection Map

Every week I will update my "absolute" projection map...

These are the red states/blue states/pickups from 04 that arent going to move. Hopefully as we move closer to election day the map will fill in rather nicely:

Currently the only solid pickup for the Democrats is Iowa, no solid ones yet for the Republicans. Republicans lead Democrats in the absolute EV.

ELECTION PROJECTION 9/17: McCAIN 274-OBAMA 264

HUGE polling dump today by ARG...and despite the weird teaser yesterday, mostly good news for McCain. Still, they are weighed on accuracy, and ARG barely ranks above ZogbyInteractive.
PPP's poll for Viriginia is worrisome- Virginia is a lot closer than many of us on the right would like to think it is, currently just McCAIN+2.5.
Some slightly better news is the results out of Colorado- the state remains weak Republican, slightly boosted by ARG.

Now some of the bad news, and this is a bit of a personal aside- I think this may be McCain's peak in the state-by-state polls, judging on the massive switch back to Obama thanks to the poor economic news, for perhaps the rest of the election cycle. If McCain can't break ahead in the economic debate, and effectively tie or beat Obama in the debates, its all downhill for JSM.

Over the whole cycle, a whole bunch of states have been categorized as "tossups".
Well, its clear now what is really up for grabs-
Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania..... and to a lesser extent Ohio, Washington, Florida, New Jersey, and Oregon.
These states may flip back and forth in the last 7 weeks- dont expect any other surprises.

MCCAIN/OBAMA STATES (weakest to strongest)
MCCAIN:
CO +1, NV +2.3, VA +2.5, OH +3.75, FL +5, MO +5, IN +5.5, WV +7.5, NC +8. MT +10, ND +10, AZ +11, AR +13, SC +13, MS +14, GA +15, LA +15, TX +15, SD +17, KY +18.5, NE +19. AL +20.5, AK +24.5, TN +25, KS +27. WY +30, OK +32, UT +37.5, ID +40
OBAMA:
MI +1.5, PA +2, MN +2.5, WI +3, NM +3, NH +3, WA +3.75, NJ +5, OR +5.5, NY +10.5, DE +11.25, IA +13, MD +13, MA +13.5, CT +14, ME +14, CA +15, VT +19, RI +21.5, HI +31, DC+60

NEXT UPDATE- SEPTEMBER 19TH 2008